Last Days For Last-Touch Attribution?

News in from the PhoCusWright annual travel conference in Orlando this week was that there is a Doubleclick product coming that will enable multi-variable attribution for purchases.

Typically online marketeers use a "last touch" rule to attribute sales to a marketing channel using cookie technology.

Consider this scenario...

1. User first visits site through an affliate link
2. Later they come back via a paid search link (PPC) for the destination site
3. On their third and final visit (when they purchase), they type in the brand name to Google, click through on the natural organic results

Typically the booking is attributed to the last paid marketing channel. In this instance it would be paid search. This is often referred to as "de-duping" marketing channels. You don't want to pay the commission twice, so you pay the last touch point.

However, it was the affliate that created the initial introduction. How come the affliate doesn't get paid? In the real world of bricks and mortar that just wouldn't happen - everyone would get their cut.

If Doubleclick can produce something that allows a fair and reasonable distribution of marketing costs by channel for each transaction, and if this is adopted as an industry standard it will be a major coup.

A couple of implications if this is approach is adopted...

1. The value of SEO will become more transparent. Early purchase lifecycle "long tail" touchpoints will show their true worth
2. Affliates will deploy new strategies based on the new ROI models that they will face
3. PPC efficiency will be a truer reflection of actual spend

My guess is this move must be in Google's interest given Google's attempted takeover over Doubleclick. If multi-variate attribution were to show that PPC were less efficient that it currently is, companies would reduce their spend and put it into other channels. I'm not sure Google would want that.

Mind you, the Doubleclick deals is still far from certain. Yesterday the EU commission refused to approve the proposed takeover and the Federal Trade Commission has yet to rule on the merger.