The Experience of Others

You're sitting in a restaurant having a great time, in fact it's a wonderful evening.  You have a good round table with a bunch of friends, the food is fantastic, the service is excellent, the wine is flowing.  The next day you get an email from the restaurant owner asking to rate your visit and you give it 5 stars.  It was fantastic.

Mrs Restaurant Owner is very happy because her customer was deeply satisfied with the experience.  She also runs a good business so she made some money that night.  Overall, it was a success for everyone involved.  Fantastic guest experience, good business, everyone is happy.  Wonderful. Beautiful. Perfect.

Ah. Experience.  That's a troublesome thing you see because it's actually quite difficult to establish what precisely was it about the experience that was good.  Was it the conversation?  Was it the company?  Both of these things?  Or the food? Or the seating configuration?  In fact, it's all of these and much more.  Experience is an emergent phenomenon.  It's emerges from a set of relationships, objects and timing in a specific moment for a specific individual to feel, well, something.

Product managers of a website have the same challenge as a restaurant owner.  They need to create an emergent set of experiences that support the business objectives.  Those emergent experiences could be for example, ease of use, joy, engagement, desire, advocacy (telling others), typing in credit card numbers, or creating a profile.

A Product Manager is an experience engineer.

Creating something which is emergent is not easy.  It's bloody difficult.  If everybody could do what Apple have done with their products in the last 10 years they would have done, but they didn't.  If something is difficult to do, it's difficult for others to copy.  And creating emergent systems that create wonderful experiences is extremely difficult. It's part art and part science.

In this world of emergence first you need to understand the systems from which your experience will come from.  The restaurant owner looks at all the details, from hiring of chefs, their kitchen organisation, the staffing rotas, the buying of ingredients, the menu design and hundreds of other small details and tries to create repeatable patterns of success that result in emergent experiences that restaurant goers rave about.  It's difficult in a restaurant and it's difficult on a website.

This web of interrelated influences that creates the emergent behaviour is a 4D world.  It's like the web itself, connected nodes of influence that act like the synapses in our brain, triggers firing behaviour from one sphere to the next. The fourth dimension is of course time, because each customer interacts with your company several times in several ways in different states of mind at different locations.

A creative product manager will first try to understand the web of influences, understand the triggers and amplify the ones that work, as well as trying new things that could be new influences and triggers.  All the time, measuring the impact as best she can.

Here's the thing though, experience can never be fully measured.  It's indescribable, intangible.

I can try and explain to you how I felt thinking this through on my walk up Shaftesbury Avenue this morning, Run DMC pumping through my headphones, excited because I'd pulled together some thinking that I'd been dwelling on for weeks, rucksack on my back, thinking of my next ski touring trip.  I could try.  No-one can ever really feel that except me, at that time, in that place with my history, future and present before me.

You can measure many aspects of experience, many dimensions.  Snapshots. Like the restaurant rating from the delighted customer.  You cannot really feel the experience of others, but you need to do your damn best to try.

As a product manager you are dealing with millions of those experiences.  And furthermore, you are building an interface that your customer will experience using a team of other people.

Building great experiences for others, through others.  A tough, but rewarding challenge.

Thermodynamics, evolution, wealth and happiness

If I was to say to you that there's a fundamental foundation that links life, physics, wealth, happiness and effort, would you;
a) yawn?
b) laugh?
c) sit up and listen?

If c, read on. Recent reading and thinking has led me to the following conclusion;

Firstly, that the first and second law of thermodynamics hold the keys to the meaning of life. And secondly, progress and wealth are underpinned by an evolutionary mechanism that is universal.

Come again?

I guess I'll need to explain in more detail. I'm not sure I can do it in a single blog post, so bear with me as I  fire up a few synapses.

The first law of thermodynamics expresses that energy can be transformed, i.e. changed from one form to another, but cannot be created nor destroyed.

The second law of thermodynamics is an expression of the tendency that over time, differences in temperature, pressure, and chemical potential equilibrate in an isolated physical system.

i.e. - the universe has a finite amount of energy, the universe is an isolated physical system and energy will level out in this system.

The levelling out process is called entropy.  In it's most general sense one can regard entropy as the general decay that surrounds us.  A new car will eventually rust, a building will need new paint, food will rot, people grow old and stuff just generally falls apart.  New life however is sustained by the sun which provides energy for living creatures.

Life requires continued energy to be sustained otherwise it fades and dies. To stay alive, we need to eat and sleep.  (Doing nothing is not an option).  There's a certain amount of energy required to stay where we are; we have to keep walking forward to stand still.  Every day we need our 2 or 3 thousand calories of energy, we need to rejuvenate with our sleep.

If we do more than just stand still it requires effort.  If you want to be wealthy, it requires effort.  If you want to have a family and prolong your gene-pool, it requires effort.  There's effort required to stand still and yet more effort to more forward.

The effect of all of this extra effort is a temporary suspension of entropy.

We strive against a tide of entropy that surrounds us and the efforts we all make on a daily basis help drive humanity forward.  We have an inner drive and purpose to temporarily suspend entropy.  This drive, this striving, is the essence of life.  It gives us satisfaction, it gives us meaning and it gives us value.  I would even go so far as to suggest that it is the source of our happiness.

When considering the business landscape, you could see it in this way: businesses competing to create business models that temporarily deliver additional value.  Over time, new business models become the norm, become commoditised and so companies need to innovate (strive) to do more than stand still.  Those that succeed create wealth, those that don't decay and die.

Behind both humanity and business is a common evolutionary algorithm.  This evolutionary algorithm is a method to uncover (not by pre-determined means, but by trial and error), organism designs and business plan designs that are optimal for the environment in which they find themselves.

To make sense of life and to make sense of business, you could like me take the following view;

1. We are part of the fabric of life itself, iterations of the human species that are being continuously tweaked to be optimised for the environment we find ourselves in by an evolutionary method

2. We derive satisfaction (value) by striving to do more than to stand still and to suspend entropy as best we can

3. Businesses work by the same means, combining previous business knowledge into new business designs that can temporarily beat the competition (suspend entropy) and create value.  To win they must continuously innovate and embrace evolutionary methods in their architecture.

The laws of thermodynamics, together with an evolutionary mechanic are foundational in understanding the human need to strive and the business need to innovate.  One delivers satisfaction and happiness, the other value and wealth.  Businesses are but collections of humans so this should be no surprise.

If you are still reading this and wonder what I'm on to deliver such a stream of consciousness, there's two things you should know.  I once studied Theology and Religious Studies at University (but am currently an atheist) and that I've recently read "The Origin of Wealth" by Eric Beinhocker.  If you get a chance do read Beinhocker, it will help develop the thinking that I've scraped the surface of here.

Habit - The Enemy Of Evolution

If evolution is a natural state, so is habit. They're a tricky pair, evolution and habit - but in my view, they are remarkably prevalent.

Evolution needs to be understood to understand how business value is created and sustained.  Good business ideas (that create value) are rarely thought up out of nothing - they build on what came before - they are the product of evolution.  Evolution brings constant change and adaptation to the changing environment - and this can generate new value.

Habit needs to be understood to realise why value gets eroded.  Habits are repetitive, with no change and adaptation to the changing environment - and habits can erode existing value by failing to adapt to changing circumstances.

We typically think of evolution from a Darwinist perspective - that is - we relate evolutionary theory to how species have changed over time.  Even people who don't agree that this is how we came to be (e.g. have a creationist bias), they still understand what evolutionary theory proposes.

Evolution can be summarised in three words: "differentiate, select, amplify" - are these three words our code not only for surviving, but for progressing, succeeding and winning?

To recap, Darwin suggested that "Favourable variations would tend to be preserved and unfavourable ones to be destroyed".  Note the word "variations".  This is the essence of evolutionary theory.  Take something, create a few variants, see which variant works best in that environment.

I suggest that anything created is built upon what was created before.  We see ideas, we merge them, we use tools and techniques to re-purpose those ideas into something new.  However, the "new idea" that takes the market by storm is only new and relevant at that moment in time for that market in those conditions.  Just like pop stars, if they are to survive they must continually anticipate and adapt to the market.

How to adapt? A simple method: evolution.  Differentiate, select, amplify.

Differentiate.  Do something different.  A new product, a new service, a new model, a new flavour.  Test the variants.   Lots of variants.  Constant iteration.

Select. Figure out which one of the variants hits the sweet spot and gets good results.

Amplify.  Do more of this.  Push resources into building / marketing / selling the new variant.

The point is though is that the new variant will never be the best it can possibly be.  It can always be even better by evolving some more.  Keep changing.  Because with evolution, we never design the "best" up front - we continuously discover "better" by trial and error.

The environment in which we operate changes on a daily basis.  What was the best effort 3 months ago is probably less likely to be as good as it could be now.  As someone once said to me "doing more of what you did to get you here isn't enough to get you over there".  So we need to constantly change and adapt.

In this changing world habit is our worst enemy.  Habit holds back evolution because we stop creating new variants.  Of course, there's a reason for habit.  It helps efficiency and for repeatable tasks, processes get tighter and more effective.  That is - if the environment in which they operate remain constant.

The world is innovating faster and faster.  As the world accelerates with new technology, innovation and social trends, we will need to be even more nimble if we are to adapt and succeed.  Failing to adapt means our ideas, our business models or solutions will become dinosaurs - extinct.

I believe this thinking can be applied on so many levels.  To corporate life, to product management, to government, to family life, to careers, to sport.

To live in the present, to evolve and adapt - it requires having some process (habit), but only just enough.

Burning Down The House

"I was in the house when the house burned down".

So sang Warren Zevon on his Album "Life'll kill Ya" in 2000.

Now I've never lived through a world war, but I've had my share of family losses and lived at more than 20 addresses. At work I've lived through two recessions, the dot com bubble burst, and 9/11 (when working in travel).  I've been in 5 companies that have been acquired and three that have had to lay off staff.  I've been through several VC funding rounds.  As an Ops Manager in travel and eCommerce I've had to fire staff, lay off staff and deal with; the death of my customers, vehicle crashes, flight delays, server outages, terrorism threats and avalanches.

So, when I heard Zevon's lyrics, it kind of made me feel - well - old.

Also - I realised that all that experience at the sharp end does make for better intuition and decision making.  Looking back at the younger me coming out of university in the early nineties - I hardly recognise him  - but it's still the same old me.

The thing is - when you're young, you have no way of knowing that something won't work, so you go for it anyway.  Business rewards risk that succeeds - and some of our best entrepreneurs and innovators are young, ballsy and blissfully ignorant of burning houses.  Passionate, energetic - and full of belief.

Increasingly I'm seeing that pairing up experienced hands with youthful vision and energy surely must be the best ingredients for start-up success.  I guess that's why Silicon Valley is a magnet for start ups; experienced VCs mentoring and funding youthful creativity.

If I ever go into business on my own, I'll be Butch Cassidy to a mother-f crazy Sundance Kid.

Embracing Order And Chaos

Ever heard the phrase "living on the edge".

What does it say to you?
- stress, out of control, barely surviving?
OR
- dynamic, exciting, feeling alive?

I often say to colleagues and friends that it's good to live on the edge of chaos.

Coming from someone that is naturally organised and likes to get things done well, this may seem like a contradiction.  Maybe it is.  Increasingly I find though that you can always have too much or indeed too little of almost anything.  For example; fun, pain, sleep, wakefulness, work, play, beer, food, heat, cold.  Add to that list order and chaos.

Order is great when it's obvious when what needs to happen.  Controlled processes are perfect for things like tax returns, train timetables, airline safety and manufacturing efficiency.

Chaos however is very useful when is not obvious about what needs to happen next.

Innovation and the entrepreneurial spirit that pushes our society and economy forward requires a certain randomness to succeed.  Through conflict of opinion, through chance encounters in the corridor, through exposure to different cultures, industries and methods, through trial and error it's through these unordered experiences that we build insight that helps us progress.

Then, ideas are worth nothing without execution, so you need to get ordered to see any results.

In my experience, it generally pays to have process, but only just enough process.

An unstructured mind needs to embrace order to see value come from their ideas.  A structured mind needs to embrace chaos to create the conditions for success.

Managers in an organisation can help construct a culture that leans towards order or chaos.  At any time in the history of a movement, the balance will need to lean towards one or the other.

Community 101, Drive Usage, Then Monetise

STOP PRESS!!!

Since I wrote this blog, my frustration and objections are now resolved, you CAN now hear what I really thought about location based services on video...


ORIGINAL POST....

Location based services. Buzz words. You hear them a lot right now. But what do they mean?

Simply put then, if I know where you are, can I offer you something that uses that knowledge in real-time?

If your mobile phone tells me your location co-ordinates...
- if I am Google I can show you a map of where you are and what is nearby
- if I am a restaurant booking app on your iPhone (e.g. bookatable) I can show you restaurants nearby
- if I am Foursquare I can present local restaurants and bars that you can "check-in" to and see who else of your friends are there

Three very simple examples then. But what of the future?

What are the implications for consumers and for marketeers?

At a recent plustechnology event run by London lawyers, Olswang, I committed my comments on this topic to video.

A company called Knowledge Peers were videoing peoples thoughts. Today I received an email with a link to a short video on my observations that targeted marketing can be welcomed by consumers rather than seen as obtrusive, and that location-based technologies help with accurate targeting.

Can I share it? No!

I really don't get it. I mean, I REALLY don't get it. What the? Uh?

Knowledge Peers is a members only site. I tried to send a share this link to a friend, they first had to sign in to Knowledge Peers. Fail. They STILL couldn't view the video. Doh - that sign up was for standard membership. Apparently I have full membership and that's why I can view it. Double Fail.

Look, if you want to build a community site, it needs to be viral, self-sustaining. You need to drive USAGE first, then monetise when you actually HAVE a community.

It's all upside down. I should be able to embed the video in this blog post, email it to friends. If they get value from the content, maybe they will sign up and subscribe.

The content on Knowledge Peers is pretty good. I mean, it's like a YouTube for business. But walling it in is route to oblivion.

So much for trying to share my thoughts on location based services with you. Sorry!

London Restaurants: Ignore Foursquare.com At Your Peril

A new social network just hit London: Foursquare.com.

Already big in the US, I am willing to stick my neck out and predict that this will develop faster in London than swine-flu.

If you're just getting your head around Twitter, you'll need to step one step further to "get" Foursquare. Once you do, I think you'll realise this has huge potential, as a network phenomenon and as a marketing tool.

The basics.

OK - so you log into Foursquare.com and create an account. What next? You invite others to join and be your "friends" (just like Facebook). You then download the Foursquare app to your smart phone. Ready.

Now, you are on the move, you go out in the evening, and when you arrive at a place (bar, restaurant, concert venue, event, coffee shop, whatever), you "check in". On your phone you simply load the app, it uses the phone's location to identify known venues in the area and you select the one you're at. Simple as that. Then - you can see which of your other friends are also there. Maybe there's friends that are out on the town that you didn't know were out on the town. You decide to hook up on the fly.

Here's the bit you need to pay attention to if you are a restaurant.

First of all, make sure you are listed. The initial list of London restaurants is seeded by WCities, and there's loads missing. Once logged in you can add your place in the "add things" link in the menu. If you're listed, people will be able to "check-in" to your venue easily.

Secondly, there's a competitive element to FourSquare. The person who checks in the most to a venue becomes that venue's "mayor". This person is your most loyal Foursquare customer. They will be visiting you a lot.

This means that you can create a loyalty scheme on this platform. "If you are our mayor, simply present your phone and you will get a free drink". As people to compete to become your mayor, you get mentioned in a whole Facebook / Twitter universe and your brand awareness soars. It's all online and it's all free.

Sounds far fetched? Maybe this year it won't be, but I can see this becoming big for a certain demographic. Huge. The future is just around the corner.

Here's a useful blog post on how to get the most out of Foursquare.com as a user.

Find A Restaurant Near You

The guys over at lastminute.com labs have been busy.

Last year they brought us fonefood, a website especially built for a mobile phone that allows you to search and book restaurants. The restaurant booking capability is powered by Livebookings.

Now, they are testing a new service called nru (near you). It's a nifty device that can be used on the latest Android phone from T-Mobile.

It's a sign of things to come.

Not sure where to eat? Load up your phone to find and read about restaurants near you.

The video below shows it in action:

Review: Flock, Social Firefox In A Box?

Is Flock really a new web browser?

Flock, a new browser that is built around "social" browsing, is an interesting alternative to the mainstream Internet Explorer and Firefox.

It pitches itself as a "social web browser"

Actually, you could argue that it's not a new browser at all because it's built on Firefox technology. Look closely and it's really just Firefox with a skin. It's a mash-up. A good one.

Firefox has been successful because of all the custom "add-ons" that you can choose to use according to your needs. If you a developer for example, there's great tools to help check code, optimise for SEO, and many more. Firefox has succeeded in this area because it has an open source development community that continuously add to the features available without adding weight to the basic browser. You can download the basic version which doesn't have too much complexity and just add on the bits that suit you.

Flock however could be seen as a "social Firefox in a box". Take all the great web 2.0 add-ons for Firefox, package them up in a neat user interface, and it actually looks like a different product.

What sort of features do you get?

Neat sidebar options, for example for your favourite RSS feeds

Add feeds by just clicking an icon in the address bar

People sidebar: If I sign into my Facebook account, all of my friends appear in my sidebar with easy to access actions such as send a message

A clean homepage "My World" that includes your favourites, your feeds, favourite media

Web clipboard, so you can copy as store snippets from useful web pages

Instant blog posting from your browser

Coming soon: webmail in the browser

Yahoo! search in installed by default, there's tabbed browsing. It's all good.

Well, it's good to a point.

If I only used one computer and one web browser, I could easily see myself being a fan of Flock. The trouble with Flock is that you need to configure the browser on each machine you download it onto. So - say now I start getting all of my favourite RSS feeds in one place, I have to do the same thing again on each browser that I download and configure.

Also, I have to work for a living. Going to a web browser pre-loaded with a whole load of distractions isn't great for productivity.

I can see myself using Flock at home and Firefox at work. To keep my favourites in one place I'll probably still use Google bookmarks, that way I can access them on any machnine. If I had a Flock account where I could store all of my settings in one place, now that would be better.

It goes to show: in the future, any successful software needs to be truly portable.

It's Not What You Know, It's Who You Know

How recruitment is changing to use social networks and "Web 2.0" technology to source candidates.

The recruitment business has always been about matching supply and demand. Candidates and Employers.

In the old days, this would involve newspaper and magazine advertising to source potential candiates. Then along came the internet, which allowed for three important changes:

1. Aggregation of supply
Websites sprung up that posted jobs from many different employers and agencies, allowing for a one stop shop for candidates.

2. Employer direct advertising
With the internet employers can advertise directly themselves with ease and source lots of candidates with a simple online listing.

3. Candidate driven demand
Candidates can search for jobs using search engines. This allows employers and agencies to advertise using paid search (e.g. Google Adwords) to fish for candidates that were stating their interest.

There have been a few winners in this first round of the internet revolution. A good example is Monster.co.uk, a jobs listing site that when I checked last had over nearly 2000 jobs in London for just one sector: IT/Software Development.

HR Managers and the recruitment industry have adapted to this new world. Can they adapt to what's coming next?


Get A Haircut And Get A New Job

The next round of change is being driven by online social networks and "web 2.0" (community driven) applications.


Here's 5 examples of what's coming next...

What connects them all is that increasingly we will be referring each other for jobs and sites will facilitate this.


1. Niche Community job boards
Specialist communities have built up over the last few years. Owners of these sites realise that their audience might be interested in jobs in that sector. An example that I've found to be successful was http://www.e-consultancy.com/jobs/ which is an online marketing and ecommerce resource. I posted a job here for just £99. I only got a few candidates, but one of them was the one we hired. Result.


2. Linkedin.com - professional networking site
Linkedin is a networking site that allows you to keep in touch with your professional contacts. It's like an online contacts list that is automatically kept up to date. There's over a million users in the UK. By my calculations, there's probably only 200,000 that are "power" users.

Anyway - linkedin has job ads. As an employer I can list a job for only about £100 (Monster is about £500). What's clever is that when a user logs in, jobs in their "network" are shown. I've found many of the jobs advertised that I've seen when I log in to be highly relevant: they're in the right sector and are interesting job roles.

What's also clever is that if you apply for a job, Linkedin will tel you how you might be connected to someone at the hiring company. You know "John Smith" who knows a "Jane White" at "Company X" where company X is the job opportunity. It gives you a chance to knock on a few doors, ask John to have a chat with Jane to find out more about the job, put in a good word for you. The power of a personal introduction is always and will always be a useful door-opener.


3. Facebook pages and applications
Facebook has a number of jobs applications. Companies are trying to find one that works. I'm not sure that Facebook is the right place for job hunting, but lots of companies have tried to make it work.

There are two main types of applications: "refer a friend" and "search for a job". The trouble is with the "search for a job" type applications is this: why would you want a "David added the search-for-a-job application" message to appear on your profile, especially as so many of your "friends" are probably your colleagues. Who can you trust these days?

Refer-a-friend type applications are potentially interesting, but the whimsical nature of Facebook means that it doesn't lend itself to a decent referral audience. If you are going to refer a friend you need to put some effort into it. See Zubka.com, below.


4. Zubka.com - referral reward site
This is a very interesting start-up and it's private equity backers are the same guys that backed eBay, Betfair and Bebo.

Zubka’s approach is that a user will log on to their website, see a job that they think that their friend may be interested in, and make a referral. If the friend gets the job, the user gets a fee. The fees are substantial. For a £50,000 role, the referrer stands to make £3,600 if the candidate is successful. That's a pretty big carrot. It does require some effort from the referrer, but not too much. 10 minutes work could land you a couple of grand.


5. Notchup.com - get paid to interview for jobs
Taking things one step further is Notchup.com. Let's see if this one works out, but it sounds interesting. Here, you register and employers can invite you for interview.

What's great is that they PAY YOU to go on the interview. How great is that? According to their "interview calculator, I'm worth $610 an interview. Could be worth an afternoon off? I haven't really test driven this site myself, so I'd be interested in feedback from anyone that has.


So - what success have you had with finding candidates or jobs through community based websites?

I'd be interested to know. Comments welcomed....

The User-Centred World

I predict a move from user-centred design to a user-centred web, and eventually to a user-centred world.

Imagine a world where all of your relationships, communication, interests and interactions are wrapped into a single digital communication portal. This portal would save all of your contact details, conversations & messages, whether these be phone calls, instant messages, emails photos, videos, music & other media.

Importantly, this portal would transcend any one device and any one software or hardware provider. It would not be just on your PC. It would not just be on your mobile phone. It would not be just through your TV. It would not just be through Google, Microsoft, Yahoo! or Facebook. This portal would sync with any device that you use, at any time, for any reason.

Imagine also that this portal could interact with you in your real world as well as your virtual world. It would track your position through GPS on your mobile phone (say) and give you directions to reach your friends in the vicinity. Maybe you would exchange contact details with new contacts just by bluetooth, and this would automatically sync with your online services such as your email, blog or birthday reminders list.

Why would we want this?

Why not? The digital era is getting ever so complicated. I've lost count of how many logins I have for different sites and services. Even keeping my contact lists up to date gets a little crazy... Mobile phone (personal, work), Outlook (personal, work), social networking site A, social networking site b, webmail a, webmail b, webmail c, address book at home.

Why should I have to keep of these devices in sync? As a human being my life is being carved up arbitrarily by the fact that different companies supply me with different devices, software and services. Do I care? My friends are my friends. My family is my family, and my work colleagues are my work colleagues. Real life is not divided into mobile phone, email, IM and social networking providers.

I want to interact with the real world as easily as possible. I want to have everything in one place. That one place is ME!

YOU are the centre of your universe and I am the centre of mine. (OK, some wouldn't agree, so don't get all philosophical on me now - let's keep this simple shall we!?)

I want to interact with people I like, need or can help. I don't want to interact with the rest of the world - life is too short!

I want to interact with companies that offer me things that I am interested in. I don't want to interact with companies that are polluting my life and time with things that I don't care about.

(Don't try and sell me a bed shorter than 2 metres in length (I won't fit in it). Don't try and sell me a steak (I'm vegetarian). Don't try and sell me shoes unless you stock size 12 - you're wasting my time. However, if you offer me a DVD subscription service better and cheaper than the one I have now, I might just be interested).

Anyway - if I could interact with all these people and companies through one profile, in any place, on any device, in a way that suits me, well that would be the user-centred world.

User-centred design can deliver commercial success. I predict though that the user-centred world will be absolutely more commercially successful than our current world. It's the ultimate "long-tail" in action.

This is already happening and I believe it will accelerate over the next few years. What example trends are there in this direction?

Users requesting information (pull, not push)

Google's iGoogle (personalised homepages)

RSS feeds

Customisation of desktops in Windows Vista

Tivo TV / Sky Plus

Podcasts

Contact across multiple devices

IM on mobile phones and PC

Email on a Blackberry

Mapping relationships and sharing interests

Social bookmarking (e.g. del.icio.us, Reddit)

Social networking (Facebook, MySpace, Bebo and others)

Business networking tools (Plaxo / Linkedin)

Infrastructure

Open-source software (e.g. Linux, Android)

Open source knowledge bases (e.g. Wikipedia)

Web enabled phones

GPS

Fingerprint based payment systems

Retina scanning security systems

Wi-Fi

10 steps to the user-centred world

1. User interests will be saved against user profiles and will be updated in real time in response to user activity
2. User relationships will be saved, categorised and constantly modified
3. There will be eventually a single user profile for each user
4. User locations will be tracked in the real world as they move about
5. Profiles in the digital world will transition to real world
6. All communication devices will centre on the same user profile
7. Content will be delivered to the user at the user's request
8. Advertising will be requested by the consumer, (pull not push)
9. "Popularity" will become increasingly more important in driving brands
10. Globalisation will allow faster networking of individuals and companies in a single digital reality that is entwined with the real world

Consumer demand for simplicity and convenience will ultimately take us down this path.

Remind me to read this post in 15 years time to see if we've done it.

How Facebook Will Break Into Search

Earlier this year Sproose was launched, a new kid on the block in search.

Using the principle of combining regular algorithmic search engine results with "votes" from users, it's kind of a cross between social bookmarking (think del.icio.us / Digg / Reddit) and the established search engines.

Why is this significant?

Search engines depend on relevancy. If users say "yes this is great site", it probably is. If you can capture that democracy and add it to a wider crawled base of sites, you end up with potentially relevant results.

Does it work?

Not yet. This project really depends on getting critical mass. I looked at the high volume terms for the travel sector "cheap flights" and "hotels" and there were 1 or 2 votes for the top 10 sites listed. These terms get hundreds of thousands of searches a month yet there's only 1 or 2 votes for the top ranked sites.

So if Sproose doesn't work, what will work?

If you combine an established bookmarking site such as Facebook, with an established search engine such as MSN, you could do the same thing, and (most importantly) get it in front of millions of users who would adopt it. If you had an advertising network to monetise that traffic, you'd be onto a winner.

Now didn't Microsoft just buy a share in Facebook?

Will Social Networking Sites Be The New Portals?

In the heady first days of the Internet, portals were king. In those days Lycos, AOL, Altavista, Excite and Yahoo! were the first port of call for users. Remember Compuserve anyone?

For the last few years, search engines are the new portals; Google, Yahoo!, MSN being the big three.

Are their days numbered? Are Social Networking Sites such as Bebo, MySpace and Facebook going to dominate?

There's an interesting report just out from Jupiter Research, (Published November 6th) SOCIAL NETWORKING ACROSS EUROPE, Using Localization to Drive Growth.

Alert yourself to their predication: "Young online consumers will increasingly Use social networking sites as primary online portals".

That means Google will be increasingly under threat as an online advertising medium.

Also, 3 important announcements in the last week or two to bear in mind;

1. Google (Orkut is their social network platform) have got together with Engage.com, Friendster, hi5, Hyves, imeem, LinkedIn, MySpace, Ning, Oracle, orkut, Plaxo, Salesforce.com, Six Apart, Tianji, Viadeo, and XING to launch OPEN SOCIAL. It was officially launched last week.

This is an open-source platform that allows developers to build widgets one time and deploy them across multiple social networks. Important, because it will allow rapid deployment and spawn a micro-industry of widget building specialists.

2. Microsoft announced that they will open up the MySpace platform to outside developers

3. Facebook have announced (November 6th) that they are launching an ad platform.

What this all means is that the online media space could start to change radically in the next 12 months.

Ads will be distributed throughout social networking sites, with many users using these sites as their home portal rather than Google. Of course, Google realises this. and needs to keep access to it's audience, hence Open Social.

Add to this the announcement on Monday that Google is launching the Open Handset Alliance (dubbed "Android") for mobile phones, and you can see that the war is really hotting up.

If they can offer an open platform where developers can build mobile phone applications, you can see a clear convergence coming from social networking on the web, social networking on handsets and monetising that medium.

So, whilst search engines are not dead, they face a challenge to their dominance. Google so far have proved to be strategically very astute, so no doubt they will rise to the challenge.

Everyscape - 3D Restaurant Interiors

Just saw this new site in beta. www.everyscape.com

Defintely worth checking out. It's a mapping site with a difference. You can browse a location as if you are inside it. You can walk into a restaurant in New York City and walk past the diners to the back, turn around and walk out again. Kind of like those 3D virtuals tours. Nothing new right? Wrong. This time you get to walk out the resturant, along the street and check out another building by going in the front door. Very cool.

You also get to see the 2D map to the right in a side panel to see where you are walking.

They've got trial versions of 4 US cities at the moment.

There's some pretty interesting revenue opportunities here for them if it takes off. Hoteliers, ticket brokers, restaurant booking agents, travel agents, they'll all want to get linked it if gets critical mass.