What Can Be Horizontal Will Be Horizontal

When you last took a flight, did you not just sit back for a moment and marvel at how so much complexity had been brought together just so that you could hop on a plane and skip across the planet?

Within the air travel industry, there are travel agents, global distribution systems, airlines, regulators, airports, aircraft maintenance companies, insurance companies, aircraft manufacturers, engine manufacturers, fuel suppliers.  When they all operate successfully together, you get air travel.

Passenger flights are decades into their evolution, it's a mature business.  And - it's horizontal.  Specialist companies support many airlines at the same time, the airline does not own and control all the parts of the value chain.

I'm curious.  What about the web?  How will that play out?

The history of human civilisation is full of examples of networks being built and exploited.

Canals, railways, ports, gas, airports, sewerage, roads, electricity, telegrams, telephones, mobile phone networks, social networks, logistics networks, GPS, the worldwide web.

One could argue that these networks form the most tangible poof of human social progress.  They provide the means for us to advance our society with learning, health, wealth, knowledge and lifestyle.  However, we often take them for granted.  We take more notice of the applications that are built upon these networks.

What's interesting is that in an early stage market, companies can form that create a network and also create and sell the products and services for that network.  It's a vertical market.   Think about how modern mobile phone operators run infrastructure, market to customers, own stores etc.  Increasingly though as the market matures, specialists come in that can supply a horizontal layer and do so incredibly well to multiple companies.

Eventually you end up with horizontal specialists.  Companies that specialise in applications, companies that run networks, companies that run services that connect applications to networks.

The internet is one hell of a network.  I'm really curious to see if horizontal will beat vertical.  What will be the role of Facebook, Apple, Google, Microsoft, Cisco, Samsung, Intel etc in the next 20 years?  Will they try and own as much of the top to bottom (consumer to network) vertical themselves or will horizontal players dominate?  My hunch, just looking at the way that all other human endeavours seem to evolve, is that horizontal will trump vertical.

If that's the case, it opens up all sorts of possibilities for businesses to thrive is as yet under-developed horizontal services or specialist products and applications consuming those services.

The web at 25 years old is the 21st Century Gold Rush.  It's far from over.

Community 101, Drive Usage, Then Monetise

STOP PRESS!!!

Since I wrote this blog, my frustration and objections are now resolved, you CAN now hear what I really thought about location based services on video...


ORIGINAL POST....

Location based services. Buzz words. You hear them a lot right now. But what do they mean?

Simply put then, if I know where you are, can I offer you something that uses that knowledge in real-time?

If your mobile phone tells me your location co-ordinates...
- if I am Google I can show you a map of where you are and what is nearby
- if I am a restaurant booking app on your iPhone (e.g. bookatable) I can show you restaurants nearby
- if I am Foursquare I can present local restaurants and bars that you can "check-in" to and see who else of your friends are there

Three very simple examples then. But what of the future?

What are the implications for consumers and for marketeers?

At a recent plustechnology event run by London lawyers, Olswang, I committed my comments on this topic to video.

A company called Knowledge Peers were videoing peoples thoughts. Today I received an email with a link to a short video on my observations that targeted marketing can be welcomed by consumers rather than seen as obtrusive, and that location-based technologies help with accurate targeting.

Can I share it? No!

I really don't get it. I mean, I REALLY don't get it. What the? Uh?

Knowledge Peers is a members only site. I tried to send a share this link to a friend, they first had to sign in to Knowledge Peers. Fail. They STILL couldn't view the video. Doh - that sign up was for standard membership. Apparently I have full membership and that's why I can view it. Double Fail.

Look, if you want to build a community site, it needs to be viral, self-sustaining. You need to drive USAGE first, then monetise when you actually HAVE a community.

It's all upside down. I should be able to embed the video in this blog post, email it to friends. If they get value from the content, maybe they will sign up and subscribe.

The content on Knowledge Peers is pretty good. I mean, it's like a YouTube for business. But walling it in is route to oblivion.

So much for trying to share my thoughts on location based services with you. Sorry!